Home
Previous
Next
March, 2013: 17 25 29
Disclaimer - IMPORTANT - Read this first!
| Investor's Journal is a diary focused strictly on investments and personal finance issues, primarily from a contrarian and retiree point of view. Follow along with an average guy's failures and successes as he learns, by trial and error, the fine art of value investing. |
3/17/13-To regular readers at this site, I apologize for its having been down for awhile, the result of web server deficiencies over which I had no control. Once that was working properly again, all the prior entries were gone, and the company said it could not correct this major omission. Thanks to Fran's (my wife's) efforts, though, those have now been restored. Since the site troubles began, this is the first opportunity I have had to provide an update.
Following the last entry, our Low Price to Book Value (Low P/Bk) portfolio stock, ZOLT, purchased on 11/12/12, was sold on 3/5/13 for a net gain of 62.54% (taking into account commissions but not regular dividends). ZOLT has been deleted from our open positions record for Low P/Bk assets, and its closed position info for 11/12/12 through 3/5/13 has been added to our spreadsheet record of the portfolio's redemptions and mergers.
Alphabetically, though in no particular order of merit, my current top-five low price to book value stocks are: AMED; HMY; REGI; RFP; and USEG.
My new featured equity from among them is Harmony Gold Mining Company, ADR (HMY) (recent price $6.26). It meets Benjamin Graham's bargain stock safety and value criteria.
Harmony Gold Mining Company, ADR was added to our nest egg at its market price in early afternoon trading on Friday, 3/8/13.
3/25/13-Following the last entry, our Low Price to Book Value (Low P/Bk) portfolio stock, HIG, purchased on 11/14/11, was sold on 3/20/13 for a net gain of 50.17% (taking into account commissions but not dividends). HIG has been deleted from our open positions record for Low P/Bk assets, and its closed position info for 11/14/11 through 3/20/13 has been added to our spreadsheet record of the portfolio's redemptions and mergers.
Alphabetically, though in no particular order of merit, my current top-five low price to book value stocks are: GAI; HMY; LUKOY; REGI; and TA.
My new featured equity from among them is LUKOIL, ADR (LUKOY) (recent price $62.34). It meets Benjamin Graham's bargain stock safety and value criteria.
LUKOIL, ADR will be added to our nest egg at its market price in early morning trading on Tuesday, 3/26/13.
I anticipate the next entry will be a quarterly review and analysis, during the coming weekend and after the close of trading on 3/29/13.
3/29/13-The following is my regular quarterly summary (statistics through 3/31/13) of the asset approaches followed here:
| Portfolio or Market Index | Date Began Monitoring | Average Asset Hold Period | Average Change | Annualized Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Graham Dividends w/Value Port. | 5/20/11 | 1.39 year | 16.56% | 11.66% |
| Berkshire Hathaway, Class B (several purchases and no sales from 2005 through 2011 | 6/3/05 | 2.46 years | 49.56% | 17.78% |
| Love 'Em and Leave 'Em | 3/26/12 | 0.60 years | 16.78% | 29.67% |
| Low Price to Book Value | 5/14/09 | 1.09 year | 20.51% | 18.70% |
| Selective Six Percent Plus | 8/22/11 | 0.84 year | 11.94% | 14.45% |
| S&P 500 Index (SPX) | 5/14/09 | 3.88 years | 75.70% | 15.63% |
Observations:
The gains in the last quarter of 2012 were continued through this first quarter of 2013. A number of equities reached their 50%+ or other sell points in the last half-year, and our nest egg's total book value has fallen to just $713, 778. Since there have also been significant open position average price gains, our equity portfolio's total market price to book value through the close of trading on 3/28/13, the last trading day of this week, at 1.05, is now a little more vulnerable to downturns than it has been. Accordingly, beginning next week we shall gradually be reducing lower book value assets and replacing them with higher book stocks, to restore good portfolio safety margins. The 2013 end-of-year target for book value continues to be $885,300.
Meanwhile, total equity dividends, at $19,846, are 2.8% of total equity book value and are actually well ahead of the 12/31/13 target of $17,706.
Concerning the monitored investment categories in the above table, the performance of a strictly buy-and-hold investment in the S&P 500 Index since 5/14/09 remains excellent. The broader market has certainly come back well after the debacle of 2008 through early 2009. Although 2011 was pretty rocky and 2012 did not see entirely smooth sailing, we have not seen a substantial correction or bear market now in almost 5 years. The situation reminds me somewhat of the mid- to late 1990s. As a cautious fellow, it is tempting to say we must be in for a steep decline soon. However, in that 1990s period, equities just kept going up and up.
Meanwhile, the advances have definitely given our portfolios a boost. While our selling has kept the total equities we hold down about where they were at the end of 2012, our nest egg has gained over $73,000 in the last 13 weeks, up nearly 7% despite significant allocation in asset categories which do not add much performance.
With dividends factored in, all of our portfolios have done better than the S & P 500 Index, particularly if one looks primarily at the closed positions. The Ben Graham Dividends with Value assets have average dividends of over 3% and their closed position price gains have averaged an annualized 23.39%.
Our Love 'Em and Leave 'Em portfolio has not been around all that long, so we should not draw serious conclusions, but it is heartening to see that its combined open and closed positions total, including dividends, would be an annualized return of over 36%.
The results for our Low Price to Book Value and Selective Six Percent Plus (SSPP) portfolios are also fine. As mentioned a couple times previously, an equal blend of the two would have demonstrated both market beating performance and healthy dividends. Note that the annualized total return for Low Price to Book Value has been about 20%, while that for SSPP has been better than 21%.
There will always be ups and downs in the stock market. Let us take more profits when the former prevail and make more purchases when the latter inevitably follow. In this way, hopefully we can see another profitable year at least in terms of accumulated book value and overall yield. Good value investing to you!
Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement
Neither I nor Investor's Journal will be responsible for losses by anyone who obtained ideas from this site.
This diary is intended for personal interest and general information only. You are advised to do your own research (as well as to consult highly compensated professionals) before spending money on anything.
I know of no reason anyone should take my financial musings seriously. At best I am a dedicated amateur providing a bit of investment-related insight and entertainment, at worst an amusing diversion.
My wife, Fran, and I may at times own shares of some of the assets mentioned here. But neither of us receive any benefit from reference to them, unless you count the mutual misery when we get it wrong, or the opportunity to gloat when we get it right.