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April, 2016: 3 7 23
Disclaimer - IMPORTANT - Read this first!
| Investor's Journal is a diary focused strictly on investments and personal finance issues, primarily from a contrarian and retiree point of view. Follow along with an average guy's failures and successes as he learns, by trial and error, the fine art of value investing. |
4/3/16-The following is my regular summary of quarterly statistics (in this case through 3/31/16) for the asset approaches followed here:
| Portfolio or Market Index | Date Began Monitoring | Average Asset Hold Period | Average Change | Annualized Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway, Class B | 6/3/05 | 2.97 years | 43.79% | 12.99% |
| Dividend Value | 5/20/11 | 1.43 years | 4.71% | 3.27% |
| High Quality* | 1/4/16 | 0.13 years | 7.03% | 67.28% |
| Low Price to Book Value | 5/14/09 | 1.24 years | 6.81% | 5.44% |
| Low Price to Trailing Earnings | 10/5/15 | 0.18 years | 3.58% | 22.08% |
| S&P 500 Index (SPX) | 5/14/09 | 6.88 years | 130.68% | 12.92% |
*Please note that for simplicity and since the High Quality strategy had not been introduced here before early January, 2016, assets bought in this approach during December of last year have been sold off, and their gain/loss records are not used for this blog's present and subsequent stats. Nonetheless, those equities were profitable overall. Had they been included, their total returns would have been consistent with the average gains indicated above.
Observations:
On average, the annualized returns obtained by our combined long-term portfolios, including dividends, would have been roughly 24%. While both the Low P/E and High Quality figures to date have been encouraging and their effect on this average quite positive, it is way too soon, however, to take them as being more than a statistical fluke. The Low P/E portfolio was only begun early last autumn and High Quality just in January of this year. Suffice to say that the current set of approaches is showing signs of being more lucrative than the combined methods employed prior to October, 2015. Consistent with that, our nest egg's net grand total (real estate, reserves, equities, etc., less all debts) is also nicely up since the end of 2015.
Meanwhile, the average of our nest egg's total book value plus total revenue as well as the total dividend income for all of our stocks or stock mutual funds are above their glide path targets.
The High Quality stocks currently in our portfolio are: AAPL; BEN; CAH; EXPD; MCK; QCOM; SLB; UNP; and VZ.
Other category holdings presently include...
Low Price to Book Value: AEY; AGO; AIG; ANAT; ATW; BHE; CSH; FRD; FSTR; GBLI; GGB; GLPW; GTE; HDNG; IOT; ISHC; KELYA; LQDT; NE; NOV; PFIN; PGH; PNTR; RCKY; REGI; SCX; SSI; SYNL; TCK; TGI; TX; VOXX; VOYA; and WILC.
Low Price to Trailing Earnings: DHT; FOSL; GHC; MGA; MN; STLY; TRN; TSO; and VLO.
Dividend Value: AP; AVX; CALM; CCUR; COP; CSCO; DEST; EC; ESV; ETN; GME; IQNT; MLR; MN; NOV; PETS; RCKY; RDS/A; SSL; STO; SUP; T; TEO; TGA; TICC; TNH; TX; UVV; and WSTG.
In the case of any of these investment classes, I may add selectively to respective open positions from time to time.
I have also in the past several weeks had occasion to buy more shares of Berkshire Hathaway while they have been priced below 1.2 times BRK/B's book value. Happily they are on average up 14.69% since those new buys. I intend to hold these and our other BRK/B shares "forever."
May we all enjoy personally fulfilling, meaningful, and profitable times in the balance of the year!
4/7/16-No assets followed here have been sold since the last entry.
My favorites at this point are: DHT and RCKY for our Dividend Value portfolio; ATW; DHT; RCKY; TA*; and TRN for our Low P/Bk portfolio; ATW; DHT; STLY; TA*; and TRN for our Low Trailing P/E portfolio; and CAH; EXPD; MCK; and QCOM for our High Quality portfolio.
Shares of all of these assets are in our nest egg already or being added to it.
(*a new recommendation)
4/23/16-Since our last entry, the following assets (held for two years or more) were sold from the Low Price to Book Value portfolio:
REGI, bought on 3/30/14, redeemed on 4/8/16 for a net loss of 21.94%.
VOXX, bought on 3/31/14, redeemed on 4/8/16 for a loss of 71.13%.
GBLI, bought on 3/30/14, redeemed on 4/8/16 for a net gain of 18.13%.
GGB, bought on 4/3/14, redeemed on 4/8/16 for a loss of 71.92%.
The above returns are after commissions but do not include any dividends. The buy/sell dates, amounts, and results have been added to our spreadsheet for Low Price to Book Value closed positions and will be incorporated into the stats of our quarterly performance reports.
In addition, the following asset was bought for our Dividend Value portfolio:
Shares of VLO were purchased on 4/14/16 for $61.50 plus a commission of $9.
Please note that I am expanding the criteria for the Low Trailing P/E portfolio to include assets with a P/E up to 25 but with the ratio of P/E to historical 3-year earnings growth = to 0.67 or below. Stocks associated with risky countries or with negative PEG, levered free cash flow, or book value or with dividend payout ratios in excess of 0.6 are to be excluded.
My favorites at this point are: CALM, PDLI*, and VLO* for our Dividend Value portfolio; ATW for our Low P/Bk portfolio; ATW; CALM; PDLI*; SKX*; SWKS*; TECD*; and VLO* for our Low Trailing P/E portfolio; and CAH plus QCOM for our High Quality portfolio.
Shares of all of these assets are in our nest egg already or being added to it.
(*a new recommendation)
Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement
Neither I nor Investor's Journal will be responsible for losses by anyone who obtained ideas from this site.
This diary is intended for personal interest and general information only. You are advised to do your own research (as well as to consult highly compensated professionals) before spending money on anything.
I know of no reason anyone should take my financial musings seriously. At best I am a dedicated amateur providing a bit of investment-related insight and entertainment, at worst an amusing diversion.
My wife, Fran, and I may at times own shares of some of the assets mentioned here. But neither of us receive any benefit from reference to them, unless you count the mutual misery when we get it wrong, or the opportunity to gloat when we get it right.