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July, 2009: 1 4 9 12 29
Disclaimer - IMPORTANT - Read this first!
| Investor's Journal is a diary focused strictly on investments and personal finance issues, primarily from a contrarian and retiree point of view. Follow along with an average guy's failures and successes as he learns, by trial and error, the fine art of value investing. |
7/1/09-Here is the CV, Low Price to Book, Five-Star Stocks, and S&P 500 Index performance summary, through the second quarter of 2009:
| Portfolio or Blend | Average Asset Hold Period | Average Change | Annualized Performance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Classic Value* | 0.91 year | +3.15% | +3.45% |
| Low Price to Book Stocks** | 0.07 year | +9.07% | +218.69% |
| Five-Star Stocks** | 0.08 year | <0.32%> | <3.80%> |
| SPX* *** | 4.74 years | <19.03%> | <4.36%> |
(The statistics combine portfolio open and closed position results [though as yet there are no Low P/Bk or 5-Star Stks. closed positions] and are effective as of the end of trading yesterday, 6/30/09. Dividend income has not been included in the table's performance figures. Commissions, though, have been subtracted from the portfolio asset results, but not from the SPX performance.)( *since inception, 10/4/04)
( **since inception, 5/14/09)
(***SPX is used as a proxy for the S&P 500 Index.)
Observations about the portfolio results:
- Despite the results being shown for the new portfolios, please note that those stats, especially the annualized performance figures, are not actually meaningful since the period is far too short and the portfolio in each case far too small to be statistically reliable. It is possible the differences between the two new portfolios will have been erased or reversed by the next quarterly analysis. And I would expect that the annualized performances will eventually rise and/or fall into much more reasonable ranges. Whatever the case, the results should be clear, for these are actual investments in our nest egg, no longer simply hypothetical portfolios.
- As usual, I feel the Classic Value closed position figures are more indicative of the actual performance of the portfolio than its more volatile and short-term open positions. For the CV assets this time, the closed position figures remain barely in positive territory. Since early 10/2004, they have averaged +1.20%, compounded annually, for a total return of about 2.9% a year (after commissions), once a conservatively estimated CV mean dividend of 1.7% has been included.
- It is, I think, as yet an excellent time to be buying, either on a dollar-cost-average basis, as through our IRAs or 401ks, for instance, and/or loading up the truck with the terrific bargains as yet available when we have new dips.
- My wife and I continue to build our portfolio's book value by 12.5% a year.
- Our portfolio of "Value Line" assets (with positive momentum, excellent safety, and suggested 3-5 year returns of 125% or better) has been competitive with our CV assets recently, especially on an annualized basis. But they are now not so easy to find. So, at this point Classic Value assets are still abundant and seem to offer the greatest potential among relatively safe (when considered as a group) equities.
7/4/09-No hypothetical portfolio assets have been held a year or more since the last entry, so sales are not indicated at this time.
My current top-five low price to book value equities are: AHL; AIZ; AWH; MIGP; and VVI.
My favorite among them is Aspen Insurance Holdings, Ltd. (AHL) (recent price $22.85). It meets Benjamin Graham's bargain stock safety and value criteria.
Aspen Insurance Holdings, Ltd. will be added to our nest egg early Monday, 7/6/09.
7/9/09-Since the last entry, our Classic Value (CV) pick, MW, purchased on 7/9/08, has been held over a year. It will be sold at the market price early Friday, 7/10/09. It will then be removed from the CV open positions portfolio, and its closed position info recorded, based on the 7/9/08 to 7/10/09 per share performance. Through the close of trading on 7/9/09, after subtracting a commission (while not counting any dividends), MW had been down 2.46% in the past 12(+) months.
My top-five current five-star equities are: AVZ; ESV; GIFI; RDS/A; and SYNL.
My favorite among them is Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc. (GIFI) (recent price $13.54). It meets Benjamin Graham's bargain stock safety and value criteria.
Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc. will be added to our nest egg at its market price early on Friday, 7/10/09.
7/12/09-Since the last entry, no hypothetical portfolio assets have been held at least a year, so sales are not indicated at this time.
My top-five current low price to book value equities are: CRDN; ITI; SORL; TESO; and VVI.
My favorite among them is Iteris, Inc. (ITI) (recent price $1.19). It meets Benjamin Graham's bargain stock safety and value criteria.
Iteris, Inc. will be added to our nest egg at its market price early on Monday, 7/13/09.
7/29/09-Since the last entry, our Classic Value (CV) pick, IPCR, purchased on 7/22/08, has been held over a year. It will be sold at the market price this morning, 7/29/09. It will then be removed from the CV open positions portfolio, and its closed position info recorded, based on the 7/22/08 to 7/29/09 per share performance. Through the close of trading on 7/28/09, after subtracting a commission (while not counting any dividends), IPCR had been up 3.82% in the past 12(+) months.
My top-five current 5-Star stocks are: CRDN; SCVL; SLI; TEAM ; and TTES.
My favorite among them is Ceradyn, Inc. (CRDN) (recent price $17.86). It meets Benjamin Graham's bargain stock safety and value criteria.
Ceradyne, Inc. will be added to our nest egg at its market price this morning, 7/29/09.
Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement
Neither I nor Investor's Journal will be responsible for losses by anyone who obtained ideas from this site.
This diary is intended for personal interest and general information only. You are advised to do your own research (as well as to consult highly compensated professionals) before spending money on anything.
I know of no reason anyone should take my financial musings seriously. At best I am a dedicated amateur providing a bit of investment-related insight and entertainment, at worst an amusing diversion.
My wife, Fran, and I may at times own shares of some of the assets mentioned here. But neither of us receive any benefit from reference to them, unless you count the mutual misery when we get it wrong, or the opportunity to gloat when we get it right.