Home
Previous
Next
September, 2009: 9 10 17 28 30
Disclaimer - IMPORTANT - Read this first!
| Investor's Journal is a diary focused strictly on investments and personal finance issues, primarily from a contrarian and retiree point of view. Follow along with an average guy's failures and successes as he learns, by trial and error, the fine art of value investing. |
9/9/09-Since the last entry, our Classic Value (CV) pick, MTW, purchased on 9/4/08, has been held over a year. It will be sold at the early market price tomorrow, Thursday, 9/10/09. It will then be removed from the CV open positions portfolio, and its closed position info recorded, based on the 9/4/08 to 9/10/09 per share performance. Through the close of trading on 9/9/09, after subtracting a commission (while not counting any dividends), MTW had been down 66.58% in the past 12(+) months.
Also since the last entry, on 8/31/09, I sold one of our low price to book value stocks, MTXX, since its fundamentals and value had deteriorated after those reported as of the purchase date, 8/3/09. Including commissions, but taking no account of possible dividends, the MTXX trades resulted in a loss of 2.13% between the 8/3/09 purchase and the 8/31/09 sale.
My top-five current low price to book value stocks are: AIZ; FRD; SVT; TEAM; and UNAM.
My favorite among them is TechTeam Global, Inc. (TEAM) (recent price $7.31). It meets Benjamin Graham's bargain stock safety and value criteria.
TechTeam Global, Inc. will be added to our nest egg at its market price early tomorrow, 9/10/09.
9/10/09-Since the last entry, I noticed that another Classic Value (CV) pick, AMPH, purchased on 9/8/08, has been held over a year. I ought to have seen that it was an additional over a year old holding when I did yesterday's entry. This was an oversight. Better late than never, as is said, so it will be sold at the early market price tomorrow, Friday, 9/11/09. It will then be removed from the CV open positions portfolio, and its closed position info recorded, based on the 9/8/08 to 9/11/09 per share performance. Through the close of trading on 9/10/09, after subtracting a commission (while not counting any dividends), AMPH had been up 14.50% in the past 12(+) months.
No new purchases or top-five stocks are being cited at this time.
However, one of our 5-Star stocks, ACET, no longer has a 5-star rating, and its P/E (now about 12) and P/Bk (now about 1.3) are above our classic value Benjamin Graham buy criteria levels. Accordingly, it will also be sold at the early market price tomorrow, Friday, 9/11/09. Through the close of trading today, ACET has been up 39.04% (including a commission but not counting any dividends) since I purchased it on 5/26/09. Once sold, it will be removed from our 5-Star stocks open positions portfolio, and its closed position info recorded, based on the 5/26/09 to 9/11/09 per share performance.
9/17/09-Since the last entry, another Classic Value (CV) pick, FLXS, purchased on 9/16/08, has been held over a year. It will be sold at the early market price tomorrow, Friday, 9/18/09. It will then be removed from the CV open positions portfolio, and its closed position info recorded, based on the 9/16/08 to 9/18/09 per share performance. Through the close of trading on 9/17/09, after subtracting a commission (while not counting any dividends), FLXS had been down 31.05% in the past 12(+) months.
My top-five current 5-Star stocks are: ESV; HQS; NE; NGA; and SPAR.
My favorite among them is Spartan Motors, Inc. (SPAR) (recent price $5.81). It meets Benjamin Graham's bargain stock safety and value criteria.
Spartan Motors, Inc. will be added to our nest egg at its market price early tomorrow, 9/18/09.
9/28/09-Since the last entry, another Classic Value (CV) pick, MRH, purchased on 9/23/08, has been held over a year. It will be sold at the early market price today, Monday, 9/28/09. It will then be removed from the CV open positions portfolio, and its closed position info recorded, based on the 9/23/08 to 9/28/09 per share performance. Through the close of trading on 9/25/09, after subtracting a commission (while not counting any dividends), MRH had been down 8.95% in the past 12(+) months.
My top-five current low price to book value stocks are: FRD; LAKE; SVT; UNAM; and VII.
My favorite among them is Lakeland Industries, Inc. (LAKE) (recent price $8.19). It meets Benjamin Graham's bargain stock safety and value criteria.
Lakeland Industries, Inc. will be added to our nest egg at its market price early today, 9/28/09.
9/30/09-Here is the CV, Low Price to Book, Five-Star Stocks, and S&P 500 Index performance summary, through the third quarter of 2009:
| Portfolio or Blend | Average Asset Hold Period | Average Change | Annualized Performance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Classic Value* | 0.96 year | +5.88% | +6.14% |
| Low Price to Book Stocks** | 0.19 year | +10.10% | +64.38% |
| Five-Star Stocks** | 0.21 year | +16.16% | +101.54% |
| SPX* *** | 4.99 years | <6.87%> | <1.42%> |
(The statistics combine portfolio open and closed position results and are effective as of the end of trading today, 9/30/09. Dividend income has not been included in the table's performance figures. Commissions, though, have been subtracted from the portfolio asset results, but not from the SPX performance.)( *since inception, 10/4/04)
( **since inception, 5/14/09)
(***SPX is used as a proxy for the S&P 500 Index.)
Observations about the portfolio results:
- Despite the findings being shown for the new portfolios, please note that those stats, especially the annualized performance figures, are not actually meaningful since the period is far too short and the portfolio in each case as yet too small to be statistically reliable. It is possible the differences between the two new portfolios will have been erased or reversed by the next quarterly analysis. And I would expect that the annualized performances will eventually rise and/or fall into much more reasonable ranges. Nonetheless, both new portfolios are doing well so far! Whatever the case, the results should be clear, for these are actual investments in our nest egg, no longer simply hypothetical portfolios.
- Once a conservatively estimated CV mean dividend of 1.7% has been included, the annualized total return for these assets through a turbulent period works out to about 7.8%, not too shabby under the economic circumstances.
- My wife and I continue to build our portfolio's book value by 12.5% a year and are on target to achieve this goal once again in 2009.
- Our portfolio of "Value Line" assets (with positive momentum, excellent safety, and suggested 3-5 year returns of 125% or better) remains competitive with our CV assets recently, especially on an annualized basis. They are, however, definitely harder to find now. At this point, Classic Value assets are still abundant and seem to offer the greatest potential among relatively safe (when considered as a group) equities.
- And among CV type equities, our best picks (that is, the best we can find each time we do an analysis) of those with 5-Star status, per the MSN-Motley Fool Caps rating system are now well ahead of the pack. Unfortunately, low price to book value stocks that also have 5-Star status per the MSN-Motley Fool Caps rating system are becoming as hard to locate, particularly if we do not want to buy assets already held, as the kind of "Value Line" assets we prefer (see above). One cannot sustain a portfolio if it is not possible to routinely find good candidates for new purchase.
- Therefore, I am reluctantly suspending the analyses for and purchase of additional 5-Star Stocks, except as they appear among the low price to book value assets, which we shall continue to research and acquire. Thus, when I find low price to book value stocks that are good candidates for purchase otherwise, I shall use their MSN-Motley Fool Caps ratings as a deciding factor in the winning candidate's favor (everything else being equal), choosing those that have higher CAPs star ratings over those with lower.
- Similarly, I shall tend not to sell low price to book value assets so long as they retain a 5-Star MSN-Motley Fool Caps rating.
- Although not the stunning overall winners to date that the 5-Star Stocks have been, Low Price to Book Value Stocks have not been bad in their own right. And they have the advantage of being more numerous (so long as I do not require them to also have 5-star status).
Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement
Neither I nor Investor's Journal will be responsible for losses by anyone who obtained ideas from this site.
This diary is intended for personal interest and general information only. You are advised to do your own research (as well as to consult highly compensated professionals) before spending money on anything.
I know of no reason anyone should take my financial musings seriously. At best I am a dedicated amateur providing a bit of investment-related insight and entertainment, at worst an amusing diversion.
My wife, Fran, and I may at times own shares of some of the assets mentioned here. But neither of us receive any benefit from reference to them, unless you count the mutual misery when we get it wrong, or the opportunity to gloat when we get it right.